Key Sticking Points in Trump’s Gaza Peace Plan
SHARM EL-SHEIKH, Egypt — Negotiators from Israel and Hamas are closer to a ceasefire than at any point in the past two years, gathered in Egypt’s resort town for indirect talks. At the heart of the process lies Donald Trump’s 20-point Gaza peace plan — a concise but controversial framework that has been embraced by Israel and partially accepted by Hamas.
Despite this rare proximity to peace, serious obstacles remain. Hostage negotiations, the future governance of Gaza, the disarmament of Hamas, and the timeline for Israeli withdrawal all present formidable challenges. With political dynamics shifting rapidly and trust between the two sides nearly absent, the road to a lasting resolution is anything but clear.
Hostage Release Timeline: A Fragile First Step
Trump’s plan stipulates that all remaining Israeli hostages in Gaza be released within 72 hours of a deal being signed. According to Israeli intelligence, 48 hostages remain in captivity — of whom only 20 are believed to be alive.
Both President Trump and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have expressed optimism in recent days, with Trump saying the hostages could be released “very soon” and Netanyahu suggesting they may be freed by October 13, coinciding with the end of the Jewish holiday of Sukkot.
Hamas has conditionally agreed to the plan’s “exchange formula,” but sources indicate the group insists on unspecified “field conditions” being met first. With the hostages serving as Hamas’s primary bargaining chip, many question whether the group would relinquish its leverage before other key issues — especially Israeli withdrawal and disarmament — are addressed.
Trust is dangerously thin. Last month, Israel reportedly targeted Hamas’s negotiating team in a failed airstrike in Doha, killing the son of senior negotiator Khalil al-Hayya. That same delegation is now participating in talks just yards away from the Israeli team in Egypt — a stark illustration of the tensions simmering beneath diplomatic efforts.
Hamas Disarmament: The Core of the Conflict
One of the most contentious points in the plan is the call for Hamas to disarm. For Israel, it’s non-negotiable. Netanyahu has reiterated that “Hamas will be disarmed and Gaza will be demilitarised — either the easy way or the hard way.”
But Hamas has historically rejected full disarmament, insisting that weapons will only be laid down once an independent Palestinian state is established — a red line Israel refuses to cross.
The group’s latest response to the Trump framework makes no mention of disarmament, signaling little to no movement on the issue. Analysts suggest this omission may indicate Hamas’s unwillingness to change its position, raising doubts about the feasibility of Israel’s core demand.
Who Will Govern Gaza?
Another major hurdle is the proposed governance structure for post-war Gaza. Under Trump’s plan, Hamas would be excluded from any future administrative role. Instead, a transitional body of Palestinian technocrats would assume control, supervised by a “Board of Peace” chaired by Trump himself and including figures like former UK Prime Minister Tony Blair.
In time, the Palestinian Authority (PA) would take over full governance.
Israel has publicly endorsed the plan, but Netanyahu appeared to distance himself from the PA’s involvement during a joint appearance with Trump last week. The Israeli leader’s unease reflects pressure from ultranationalist members of his coalition, many of whom oppose any return of the PA and advocate re-establishing Jewish settlements in Gaza.
Hamas, meanwhile, has hinted at a desire to remain part of Gaza’s future under the umbrella of a “unified Palestinian movement.” The ambiguity in their language — likely intentional — suggests a quiet bid to maintain influence, a position both Israel and Trump appear unwilling to accept.
Israeli Withdrawal: Unclear Maps, Vague Timelines
The Trump plan outlines a phased Israeli military withdrawal from Gaza, divided into three stages. The first would leave roughly 55% of the territory under Israeli control, dropping to 40% in the second, and just 15% in the third — a so-called “security perimeter” to remain until Gaza is deemed secure from future threats.
The lack of a clear timeline or firm definition of what constitutes “secure” has raised alarms among Hamas leaders. The White House map accompanying the plan is reportedly inconsistent with the Israeli military’s own maps, and in some places, the Gaza border is inaccurately drawn.
These discrepancies add fuel to Hamas’s longstanding suspicion of Israeli intentions and have further complicated efforts to finalize any agreement.
Netanyahu’s Political Future in the Balance
Looming over all negotiations is the political survival of Benjamin Netanyahu. The embattled Israeli Prime Minister is under intense pressure from far-right coalition partners, many of whom oppose any peace deal that falls short of Hamas’s total eradication.
Netanyahu is also facing a lengthy corruption trial that could resume in earnest once the war ends — giving rise to accusations that he is prolonging the conflict to stay in power.
Earlier this year, both Netanyahu and Trump floated a proposal to redevelop Gaza into a “Mediterranean riviera” — a concept that included forced Palestinian relocation. The current peace plan represents a dramatic departure from that vision, one that may be difficult for his hardline base to accept.
Yet public opinion is shifting. Recent polls suggest nearly 70% of Israelis now favor ending the war in exchange for the release of hostages. With elections set for 2026, Netanyahu must weigh the benefits of peace against the potential collapse of his fragile coalition.
A Step Closer, But Still Far From Peace
Despite the challenges, Trump’s 20-point peace plan has brought Israel and Hamas closer to agreement than at any time since the war erupted. But proximity to a deal doesn’t guarantee success. As negotiators meet in Sharm El-Sheikh, the fate of Gaza — and the broader Middle East — hangs in the balance.
For now, the parties remain locked in a delicate dance, where each step forward is shadowed by history, politics, and the pain of a conflict that has already cost thousands of lives.
