2026 NFL Mock Draft 2.0: Five QBs Go in Round 1, But No Arch Manning or Clear-Cut No. 1
Just six weeks into the college football season, the quarterback narrative for the 2026 NFL Draft is already taking shape — and diverging sharply from recent years.
In his updated 2026 NFL Mock Draft 2.0, CBS Sports analyst Ryan Wilson projects five quarterbacks in the first round. But unlike past drafts led by household names like Joe Burrow, Trevor Lawrence, or Caleb Williams, this year’s group lacks a surefire No. 1 overall pick.
And if you’re wondering whether Arch Manning, Garrett Nussmeier, or LaNorris Sellers made the cut — they didn’t. Not yet, at least.
Why Arch Manning Is Nowhere Near the 2026 NFL Draft Radar
Let’s put it bluntly: Arch Manning isn’t ready for the NFL, and that’s entirely fine.
According to Wilson, Manning has shown — almost weekly — that he’s far from NFL-caliber at this stage of his development. The Texas quarterback hasn’t started a full season, hasn’t faced consistent top-tier defensive pressure, and hasn’t demonstrated the growth or poise that justify early draft hype.
“He’s proven — pretty much every single week — that he’s not remotely ready … and that’s OK,” Wilson said on the With the First Pick podcast, which he co-hosts with former Titans GM Ran Carthon.
Manning, slated to become Texas’s full-time starter in 2025, is still in the early stages of his college career. Much of his experience to date has come in low-stakes situations. Expecting him to jump into the NFL in 2026, Wilson argues, is premature.
“If he can’t handle the pressure of playing on a loaded Texas team, what chance would he have on the Jets or Saints or Browns?”
Rather than force the conversation, Wilson urges fans and media alike to pause the Arch Manning talk — at least until late 2026.
Garrett Nussmeier’s Stock Fading Amid Inconsistency and Injury
LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier, once considered a potential first-rounder, is also absent from Wilson’s latest mock — and for good reason.
While the junior quarterback flashes the tools of a franchise QB, his performances remain inconsistent. The same issues that plagued him in 2024 — decision-making under pressure and timing errors — continue to resurface in 2025.
Height is another concern. At under 6-foot-1, Nussmeier doesn’t fit the modern NFL mold for a pocket passer. Combine that with a banged-up season, and the evaluation becomes murkier.
“It’s not like the likelihood of staying healthy improves once you get to the NFL,” Wilson notes.
Unless Nussmeier turns a corner in the second half of the season, he may need to consider returning for another year — or risk falling into Day 2 or Day 3 territory.
The Five QBs Wilson Did Include in Round 1
While Manning, Nussmeier, and Sellers are out, five other quarterbacks make the cut in Wilson’s Round 1 projection. Although none are clear-cut superstars, they each offer starting potential.
Top QB Prospects (with No. 1 Pick Odds via FanDuel):
| Player | School | Odds to Go No. 1 |
|---|---|---|
| Fernando Mendoza | Indiana | +340 |
| LaNorris Sellers | South Carolina | +470 |
| Dante Moore | Oregon | +470 |
| Ty Simpson | Alabama | +650 |
| Garrett Nussmeier | LSU | +1000 (Not in mock) |
| Reuben Bain Jr. | Miami (EDGE) | +1500 |
| John Mateer | Oklahoma | +1500 |
While Mendoza and Moore are co-favorites, Wilson emphasizes that none of the top quarterbacks separate themselves like Burrow or Williams once did.
Instead, this year’s QB pool is deep, not dominant — a collection of 5–8 closely ranked signal-callers, each with upside and uncertainty.
Mock Draft Trades: Titans and Browns Make Strategic First-Round Moves
Wilson also spices up his mock with two late first-round trades, both involving teams eager to address long-term needs.
- Tennessee Titans: Trade up from the top of Round 2 into the back end of Round 1 to grab an offensive lineman. Given the team’s instability on the line, this pick helps build a foundation — and gives them a fifth-year option.
- Cleveland Browns: Similarly trade back into Round 1 to select a quarterback. With ongoing questions at the position, the Browns use late-round capital to take a calculated swing on a developmental passer without giving up a top-10 pick.
Wilson doesn’t specify which QBs the Titans and Browns target, but the message is clear: both teams want first-round control over high-upside prospects.
What About the Teams That Traded Out?
- Detroit Lions: Land a gritty, defensive-minded player early in Round 2 — someone who fits the physical identity Dan Campbell continues to build.
- Philadelphia Eagles: Grab a value-packed contributor at a position of need, proving once again that GM Howie Roseman knows how to work the board.
A Draft Without a Crowned King — and That’s Good
Ultimately, Wilson’s 2026 mock draft is defined by uncertainty at the top, a crowded QB field, and a refreshing lack of forced narratives.
The absence of a golden-boy quarterback isn’t a weakness — it’s an opportunity for smart teams to distinguish themselves.
“There are 5 to 8 quarterbacks who aren’t all that different from one another,” Wilson explains. “And in that sense, these next 200 or so days until the actual NFL draft are going to be a lot of fun.”
Whether it’s Dante Moore, Fernando Mendoza, or a dark-horse riser, the 2026 NFL Draft promises depth over dominance — and strategy over spectacle.
Final Word
Arch Manning might not be ready, and Garrett Nussmeier may still be figuring things out, but the 2026 draft class isn’t short on intrigue. With late-round trades, rising names, and no clear alpha, the next few months will be a wild ride for NFL scouts, front offices, and fans alike.
