NHL Award Long Shots: 12 Bold Picks for 2026-27
The 2026-27 NHL season is still ahead, but the conversation surrounding the league’s biggest individual awards is already taking shape. While the usual superstars dominate preseason projections, some of the most interesting possibilities sit much further down the board.
That is the idea behind this year’s NHL award long shots.
The Athletic’s annual exercise looks beyond the obvious favorites and asks which players could make an unexpected run at the Hart, Vezina, Norris or Calder Trophy. The selections use long odds as a starting point, with the exercise focusing on candidates priced at roughly 20-to-1 or longer.
The result is a fascinating list of established stars, emerging players and genuine outsiders.
Among the names are Zach Werenski, Jack Eichel, Cale Makar, Stuart Skinner, Adam Fox and Jake Sanderson. Some are already elite NHL players. Others would need a dramatic breakout season.
The common thread is simple: each player has a realistic path, even if that path requires several things to go right.
Why NHL award long shots are worth watching
Award races rarely develop exactly as expected.
A preseason favorite can struggle with injuries. A team can dramatically improve during the season. A young player can make an unexpected jump. A goaltender can get hot at exactly the right time.
That makes long-shot candidates especially interesting.
The players below are not necessarily the most likely winners. Instead, they represent players whose combination of talent, team situation, opportunity and potential narrative could put them into the conversation if everything breaks correctly.
The odds attached to the original long-shot exercise were snapshots rather than guarantees, and betting markets can move significantly before and during the season. Current futures markets already show some differences from the earlier numbers.
NHL award long shots for the Norris Trophy
The Norris Trophy is awarded to the NHL’s top defenseman, making it one of the most difficult awards for an unexpected candidate to capture.
Three particularly interesting long shots are Adam Fox, Jake Sanderson and Thomas Harley.
Adam Fox — +3300
Adam Fox may be the safest of the three long-shot Norris selections.
The New York Rangers defenseman has already established himself as one of the league’s premier all-around blue-liners. Yet his perception has cooled compared with the peak of his Norris-winning years.
That creates an interesting opportunity.
Fox does not need to suddenly become a completely different player. Instead, he needs to put together a healthy, dominant season that reminds voters why he has been considered an elite defenseman.
His ability to contribute offensively while handling difficult defensive assignments gives him a strong foundation.
Current futures markets have also kept Fox well outside the group of leading Norris favorites, illustrating just how large the gap is between his reputation and the top of the betting board.
Jake Sanderson — +3300
Jake Sanderson represents a different kind of Norris candidate.
The Ottawa Senators defenseman has the tools to influence games at both ends of the ice. His value becomes particularly interesting if he can combine strong defensive results with a major offensive season.
The original long-shot selection pointed to Sanderson’s two-way balance and his ability to remain among the league’s better defensemen even after missing time.
If he stays healthy and takes another step offensively, the Norris conversation could become much louder.
For a young defenseman, that type of development would not be surprising. The bigger question is whether Ottawa can provide enough team success to keep him in the spotlight.
Thomas Harley — +20000
Thomas Harley is the true lottery-ticket selection.
His long-shot price was dramatically higher than those of Fox and Sanderson, making him the biggest outsider among the three Norris candidates. Yet there is a reason he continues to attract attention.
Harley has already shown flashes of being an impact defenseman. He was also selected as a long shot in the previous exercise and had previously finished seventh in Norris voting.
That history makes the prediction less random than the odds suggest.
For Harley to win, however, he would need a major jump in recognition and production. He would likely need both personal success and a strong season from Dallas.
Current markets still place Harley far outside the leading Norris contenders, reinforcing how difficult this path would be.
NHL award long shots for the Calder Trophy
The Calder Trophy race is particularly unpredictable because rookies can emerge from nowhere.
This year’s long-shot group includes James Hagens, Jacob Fowler and Tij Iginla.
James Hagens — +2800
James Hagens is an intriguing candidate because his ceiling could be considerably higher than his initial NHL experience suggests.
The young forward had only a limited NHL sample before entering the new season, meaning there is plenty of uncertainty surrounding how quickly he can establish himself.
Opportunity will be crucial.
If Hagens earns significant minutes alongside elite offensive talent and receives power-play opportunities, his production could accelerate quickly.
The Calder race often rewards players who combine opportunity with immediate impact. Hagens has the skill set to become that kind of player if the Bruins give him enough responsibility.
Jacob Fowler — +2800
Jacob Fowler offers an entirely different Calder pathway.
Instead of winning the award through offensive production, the goaltender could enter the race by taking advantage of an opening in Montreal’s crease.
Fowler has long been viewed as a highly regarded goaltending prospect. If injuries or performance issues create additional starts, he could receive enough NHL exposure to make his case.
The advantage is team context.
A goaltender playing behind a playoff-caliber roster can accumulate wins while receiving considerable attention. If Fowler performs above expectations in those opportunities, the Calder conversation could develop quickly.
Tij Iginla — +4000
Tij Iginla is perhaps the most dependent on opportunity.
His challenge is not simply producing at an NHL level. First, he needs to establish himself in Utah’s lineup.
That uncertainty is precisely what makes him a long shot.
If Iginla makes the roster and immediately produces, his name recognition could help him attract attention during the award race. A strong rookie season with Utah could also become part of a larger story about the franchise’s development.
For now, though, there are several steps between him and serious Calder consideration.
NHL award long shots for the Vezina Trophy
Goaltending awards can be especially volatile.
A team’s defensive structure, workload, injuries and save percentage can all change the picture dramatically from one season to another.
The three long shots here are Lukáš Dostál, Stuart Skinner and Jake Oettinger.
Lukáš Dostál — +3000
Lukáš Dostál could have one of the most difficult assignments of any Vezina candidate.
Anaheim’s defensive environment has not traditionally made life easy for its goaltenders. That means an elite season from Dostál could stand out even more.
The long-shot argument is straightforward: if Anaheim unexpectedly pushes toward the playoffs and Dostál becomes the player driving that improvement, voters would have a compelling story in front of them.
His previous level of play has shown that the talent exists.
The challenge is consistency.
If Dostál can combine high-end shot stopping with a heavy workload, he could transform himself from an interesting long shot into a legitimate Vezina candidate.
Stuart Skinner — +10000
Stuart Skinner is one of the most fascinating names on the entire list.
His path depends heavily on his team situation and workload.
The long-shot case envisions Skinner receiving a much larger opportunity and responding with the type of season that changes the perception surrounding him.
That is not completely unrealistic. Skinner has already shown that he can produce strong stretches of NHL goaltending.
He also posted 8.3 Goals Saved Above Expected across 50 games between two teams during the 2025-26 season, according to Sportsnet’s reporting.
The question is whether he can turn that into an entire season of elite consistency.
At +10000 in the original long-shot exercise, Skinner was clearly one of the biggest outsiders. Current futures markets have also continued to price him as a major underdog, although exact numbers vary between sportsbooks.
Jake Oettinger — +2500
Jake Oettinger is the least shocking name among the Vezina long shots.
He already has the pedigree, the workload and the team environment.
The argument for Oettinger is that voters still care about winning, and an elite goaltender on a strong team has a natural advantage in the award race.
If Oettinger delivers a career-best statistical season while Dallas remains near the top of the standings, his candidacy could become difficult to ignore.
He may not have the dramatic underdog story of Skinner or Dostál, but his route to the trophy is arguably more straightforward.
NHL award long shots for the Hart Trophy
The Hart Memorial Trophy is the league’s MVP award, making this group the most fascinating.
Three defensemen and forwards are competing against a field usually dominated by elite scorers.
The long-shot selections are Zach Werenski, Jack Eichel and Cale Makar.
Zach Werenski — +6000
Zach Werenski may have the clearest narrative of the three.
The Columbus Blue Jackets defenseman already proved he can produce at an elite level, winning his first Norris Trophy after a 22-goal, 81-point season in 2025-26 while averaging more than 26 minutes per game.
That performance changes the Hart discussion.
If Columbus takes a major step forward and Werenski remains the team’s central driver, voters could begin looking at him as more than simply an elite defenseman.
A defenseman winning the Hart is rare, but Werenski’s workload and all-around responsibility give him a credible foundation.
The current Hart market has him around +6000 at some books, placing him firmly in the long-shot category despite his Norris-winning season.
Jack Eichel — +4000
Jack Eichel is the opposite of a completely unexpected candidate.
He has the name recognition, offensive ability and experience required for an MVP campaign.
The challenge is turning those ingredients into a season that stands above the NHL’s other elite forwards.
A healthier and more productive Eichel could put himself directly into the Hart conversation, particularly if Vegas remains among the league’s strongest teams.
His long-shot status therefore says more about the depth of the NHL’s superstar field than it does about his ability.
Current futures markets have Eichel around +4000, keeping him within striking distance of the broader contender group.
Cale Makar — +2500
Cale Makar might be the most credible defenseman on this entire list.
The problem is history.
Defensemen rarely win the Hart Trophy. Voters generally gravitate toward elite offensive forwards when selecting the league’s MVP.
That makes Makar’s path difficult even if he has an outstanding season.
However, Makar possesses something most defensemen do not: overwhelming offensive production combined with elite defensive value.
If Colorado dominates and Makar produces at an MVP level, the narrative could become powerful enough to overcome the historical bias toward forwards.
His +2500 long-shot price is also considerably shorter than many of the other candidates, reflecting just how believable the scenario is. Current markets similarly place him among the more prominent Hart contenders outside the very top tier.
Which NHL award long shots are most interesting?
Not all long shots are equally realistic.
Among the 12 selections, several stand out because their paths to contention require fewer extraordinary events.
Zach Werenski is one of the strongest candidates because he already demonstrated Norris-level performance and carries an enormous workload. A major improvement from Columbus could elevate his Hart case.
Cale Makar is another obvious name. He does not need to prove that he is an elite player. Instead, he needs to produce an MVP-caliber season while overcoming the historical preference for forwards.
Jack Eichel has perhaps the cleanest traditional MVP path. A major scoring season combined with team success would immediately make him relevant.
Among the deeper outsiders, Stuart Skinner is fascinating because goaltending can change quickly. If he secures a full-time role and delivers an elite season, the distance between his current reputation and Vezina consideration could disappear surprisingly fast.
Thomas Harley is the true wild card. His odds reflect the difficulty of the challenge, but his previous Norris-voting history makes the selection more interesting than a random 200-to-1 name.
What could derail these NHL award long shots?
The biggest problem with long-shot predictions is that they require several conditions to align.
For a defenseman chasing the Hart, team success is often essential.
For a goaltender, workload and team defense can dramatically influence results.
For rookies, simply earning a regular NHL role can be the biggest obstacle.
Injuries are another major factor. A player can have the perfect statistical profile and still disappear from the award race after missing several months.
There is also the competition itself.
The NHL enters every season with an enormous collection of established stars. Players such as Connor McDavid, Nathan MacKinnon, Macklin Celebrini and others sit much higher on current Hart boards, while Cale Makar, Zach Werenski and Quinn Hughes remain among the leading Norris names.
That means a long-shot candidate must not simply have a great season.
They need to have a season that stands out against the best players in the world.
The bigger picture for the 2026-27 NHL season
The appeal of NHL award long shots is not necessarily about predicting the eventual winner months before the season begins.
It is about identifying players whose circumstances could change dramatically.
A young player can suddenly receive top-line minutes. A veteran can rediscover his best form. A defenseman can become the unquestioned leader of a rising team. A goaltender can turn an uncertain crease into a strength.
Those developments are what make the NHL unpredictable.
The 12 players highlighted here cover nearly every version of that scenario.
Fox and Sanderson need recognition to catch up with their underlying quality. Harley needs a much bigger breakout. Hagens, Fowler and Iginla need opportunity. Dostál and Skinner need exceptional goaltending seasons. Oettinger needs to capitalize on his team environment.
Werenski, Eichel and Makar are closer to the established-star end of the spectrum, but even they need a special season to win the Hart.
Ultimately, the best NHL award long shots are not necessarily the players with the biggest odds.
They are the players with a believable story.
And as the 2026-27 season approaches, those stories could become some of the most interesting individual races in hockey.
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