Will China Become a Lower US Defence Priority? New Strategy Report May Reveal Shift

The Pentagon is poised to unveil a new National Defence Strategy that could herald a substantive recalibration in how the United States views China as a strategic competitor. While the draft report reportedly reaffirms Washington’s commitment to deterring Beijing in the Indo-Pacific, it may simultaneously elevate homeland defense as the top priority.

Homeland First: A New Emphasis

According to a May memo from the U.S. Department of Defense, the upcoming strategy will “prioritise defence of the U.S. homeland, including America’s skies and borders, and deterring China in the Indo-Pacific.”
Politico has also reported that the draft version shifts attention toward domestic security, suggesting that threats closer to home could overshadow foreign competition in the strategic hierarchy.

Yet, this does not necessarily equate to a retreat from the Indo-Pacific. As He Wenxiang of Jinan University observes, Washington may continue to contest China’s influence, but do so via indirect containment in peripheral regions rather than direct confrontation along China’s front lines.

Indirect Containment: A Strategic Reorientation

In a recent report from the National Institute of Strategic Studies at Shanghai Jiao Tong University, He argues that the United States might prefer a broader, subtler posture. Rather than pushing aggressively into contested zones near China, the U.S. could deepen partnerships with countries further afield—effectively encircling influence without immediate confrontation.

This would align with a more sustainable, long-term approach: reinforcing security ties in regions like the Indian Ocean, Southeast Asia, and the Arctic, rather than matching Beijing’s bold front-line assertions.

Implications for US-China Dynamics

If the new strategy does indeed relegate China to a somewhat lower priority—while still maintaining a deterrence posture—several consequences could follow:

• Broader Diplomatic Engagements — The U.S. may invest more heavily in alliance-building and multilateral arrangements across the Indo-Pacific, Africa, and Latin America.
• Reshaped Military Posture — Forces might be realigned toward mobile, expeditionary capabilities rather than static forward deployments near China.
• Political Signaling — Washington could indicate to Beijing that it is not narrowing its lens, but rather redistributing strategic focus to manage rising complexities at home and abroad.