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MLB September Predictions: 5 Bold Playoff Picks

The MLB September predictions are coming into sharper focus as the 2026 regular season enters its decisive final weeks. With division races tightening in the American League and several National League teams battling for postseason positioning, ESPN’s baseball experts have offered their projections for the teams and players most likely to shape October.

The predictions suggest that much of the existing playoff picture could remain intact. However, there are still several opportunities for major changes before the regular season ends. The American League wild-card race remains particularly interesting, while the National League’s final postseason berth could come down to the Padres and Diamondbacks.

ESPN’s panel also made predictions involving the league’s biggest individual statistical races. Kyle Schwarber remains the favorite among most voters to lead MLB in home runs, while Dylan Cease has emerged as the overwhelming choice to finish first in strikeouts. Pete Crow-Armstrong is another major storyline after an extraordinary surge in power and overall production. EESPN

MLB September Predictions Favor Limited Playoff Changes

One of the biggest questions entering September is how much the current postseason field will change.

ESPN’s experts largely expect stability. Only two voters predicted that all 12 teams currently projected to reach the playoffs will remain in the field. Five predicted 11 of those teams will survive, while six projected 10 and two predicted nine.

That distribution points toward movement, but not a complete shake-up.

Several teams outside the current playoff picture have struggled to build convincing momentum. Seattle, Miami and Minnesota have all experienced difficult stretches, while Toronto has faced offensive problems.

That makes a dramatic late-season turnaround difficult to project.

Still, September baseball can change quickly. A strong two- or three-week run can transform a team’s postseason outlook, particularly when contenders are separated by only a handful of games.

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Six Division Leaders Have a Strong Chance to Hold On

The division races provide another major theme in the MLB September predictions.

Nine ESPN voters believe all six current division leaders will eventually win their respective divisions. Six voters expect five of the six leaders to finish on top.

That consensus reflects the relatively narrow number of realistic opportunities for a challenger to make up ground.

The American League contains several of the closest races. Tampa Bay has established itself as the team to beat in the AL East, with the Yankees attempting to close the gap. Aaron Judge’s potential return is one factor that could make the race more complicated.

The Yankees entered September as a serious postseason team, but overtaking Tampa Bay requires both a strong finish and help from the Rays.

The AL Central is another race that could produce late drama. Meanwhile, Houston and Texas have battled in the AL West, although Houston’s head-to-head advantage has made a late Rangers comeback more difficult.

Recent results underline the importance of every remaining series. The Yankees, for example, lost a 4-3 game to San Diego on Sept. 6 after the Padres opened with three consecutive home runs. The result left New York four games behind Tampa Bay in the AL East and tightened the Yankees’ wild-card margin over Boston. RReuters+1

Brewers and Dodgers Lead the NL Bye Race

The National League’s race for first-round byes is another major focus.

Among the Milwaukee Brewers, Los Angeles Dodgers and Atlanta Braves, ESPN voters overwhelmingly selected Milwaukee and Los Angeles as the two teams most likely to receive byes.

The Brewers received 15 votes, while the Dodgers collected 13. Atlanta received only two. EESPN

Milwaukee’s position is especially strong. The Brewers have maintained one of the best records in baseball and entered September with a substantial lead in the NL Central.

The Dodgers, meanwhile, continue to chase the top spot despite questions surrounding their offense and Shohei Ohtani’s health.

Los Angeles recently moved to 86-57 after beating Washington 7-5. Mookie Betts delivered a decisive three-run homer, while the Dodgers won their fourth consecutive game. Ohtani did not play for the fourth straight game because of injury concerns. RReuters

The situation makes the Dodgers an intriguing September team. Their roster is talented enough to compete for the National League’s top seeds, but keeping key players healthy could be just as important as winning games.

Blue Jays Emerge as a Popular Wild-Card Pick

One of the more interesting MLB September predictions involves Toronto.

The Blue Jays received 10 votes to secure the final American League wild-card position. Cleveland received four votes, while Texas received one.

Toronto’s appeal comes partly from its recent history. ESPN’s voters pointed to the club’s ability to make a late push after reaching the World Series stage the previous season.

The current American League middle class has created an opening for a team outside the immediate playoff picture to make a run.

However, Toronto needs more than reputation. The club must produce consistently over the final weeks and capitalize on mistakes from its rivals.

That makes the Blue Jays one of the most fascinating teams to monitor as September progresses.

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Padres Have the Edge Over the Diamondbacks

The NL wild-card race could provide one of September’s most important battles.

ESPN voters overwhelmingly picked San Diego over Arizona for the final National League playoff seed. The Padres received 12 votes compared with three for the Diamondbacks. EESPN

The reasoning is largely based on San Diego’s offensive turnaround.

For much of the season, the Padres struggled to generate consistent production. But their offense improved dramatically after late July, helping produce a 20-7 stretch that pushed San Diego firmly into the playoff race.

Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado and Jackson Merrill are among the players expected to determine whether that improvement lasts.

The Padres also possess a major advantage at the back end of games. Mason Miller has emerged as one of baseball’s most dominant closers, giving San Diego a weapon in close September contests.

The Diamondbacks remain dangerous, but San Diego’s combination of offense, starting pitching and bullpen strength gives the Padres the edge.

The race is far from settled. Yet among ESPN’s experts, the Padres are clearly the preferred choice.

MLB September Predictions Give Schwarber the Home Run Crown

The individual statistical races are just as compelling as the playoff battles.

Kyle Schwarber received 12 votes to lead MLB in home runs. Pete Crow-Armstrong received three. EESPN

Schwarber entered September with a significant power résumé and was positioned to challenge for another 50-home-run season.

However, his recent pace has created an opening for Crow-Armstrong.

The Chicago outfielder exploded for 14 home runs during August, leading all players for the month. That surge has turned the home-run race into one of the more intriguing individual competitions of the final weeks.

Schwarber’s advantage is experience and established power. Crow-Armstrong’s advantage is momentum.

If his August production continues, PCA could make the race considerably closer than expected.

Can Yordan Alvarez Win the Triple Crown?

Yordan Alvarez represents another fascinating statistical storyline.

ESPN’s panel was nearly split on whether Alvarez will win the American League Triple Crown. Seven voters said yes, while eight said no.

The challenge is that Alvarez faces increasingly strong competition in all three categories.

Chandler Simpson has been hitting at an extraordinary rate since the All-Star break. Junior Caminero has closed the gap in home runs, while Pete Alonso has positioned himself strongly in the RBI race.

Alvarez remains an elite offensive player, but opposing pitchers have also shown a willingness to avoid giving him hittable pitches.

That could make the final weeks especially difficult.

A Triple Crown requires sustained excellence in batting average, home runs and RBIs. Alvarez has the talent to accomplish it, but the margin for error is extremely small.

Pete Crow-Armstrong Could Reach a Historic WAR Total

Crow-Armstrong’s potential finish goes beyond the home-run race.

ESPN’s projections included several estimates for his final WAR, with multiple voters placing him above 10 wins.

That would be a remarkable achievement.

According to ESPN, Crow-Armstrong had already accumulated 9.4 FanGraphs WAR by Friday morning and was tracking toward approximately 10.88. His performance since the beginning of August has made a 10-WAR season look increasingly realistic. EESPN

A final total around 10.5 or higher would place him in rare company.

The combination of power, defense and overall value is what makes his season particularly unusual. Even if he does not win the home-run race, his overall contribution could still make him one of the defining players of 2026.

Dylan Cease Is the Favorite for the Strikeout Crown

The pitching statistical race has a clear favorite.

Dylan Cease received 13 votes to finish as MLB’s strikeout leader. Jacob Misiorowski received two. EESPN

Cease has recorded at least 200 strikeouts in six consecutive seasons, but he has never led the majors in strikeouts.

The circumstances now favor him.

Milwaukee has a significant lead in the NL Central, which could encourage the Brewers to manage Misiorowski’s workload. The young pitcher has already exceeded his previous career high in innings, making workload management increasingly important.

Cease, by contrast, is expected to continue taking the ball regularly as Toronto fights for its postseason position.

That difference could determine the final race.

ESPN’s projection has Cease overcoming a six-strikeout deficit and finishing first.

Aaron Judge Could Change the AL Playoff Picture

Perhaps the boldest prediction involves Aaron Judge.

Several ESPN contributors believe Judge could return early in September and immediately change the American League playoff picture.

One prediction has Judge returning Sept. 8, playing at an elite level and making the Yankees the favorite in the American League.

Another ESPN prediction goes even further: New York could overtake Tampa Bay and win the AL East.

The possibility is significant because the Yankees already have a strong postseason position. A healthy Judge would add another elite offensive threat to a team attempting to close the division gap.

However, the margin is small.

New York recently lost to San Diego and remains behind Tampa Bay. The Rays have continued to control the division, while Boston has also moved closer to the Yankees in the wild-card picture. RReuters+1

Judge’s return could therefore influence more than one race.

Bold September Predictions Go Beyond the Playoff Picture

ESPN’s experts offered several additional predictions that could make the final weeks unforgettable.

One prediction calls for Cease to throw a no-hitter on the final day of the regular season and help Toronto reach the postseason.

Another predicts that the Yankees will win the AL East.

There is also a prediction that Seattle could steal the AL West from Houston. One ESPN projection has the Mariners winning 11 of their final 15 games and clinching the division with a Cal Raleigh walk-off home run.

Meanwhile, another prediction has Chris Sale making a late surge to win the NL Cy Young Award.

Kyle Schwarber also appears in one particularly aggressive forecast: winning the home-run crown while finishing with 230 strikeouts, which would surpass Mark Reynolds’ previous record for strikeouts by a hitter.

These predictions are intentionally bold, but they illustrate how much can still change before October.

What to Watch During the Final Weeks

The most important storyline may ultimately be the balance between established contenders and late-season momentum.

The Rays have positioned themselves strongly in the AL East. Milwaukee has been one of the National League’s most consistent teams. The Dodgers remain dangerous despite injury concerns, while Philadelphia, Chicago and Atlanta continue to battle for favorable postseason positioning.

San Diego’s resurgence has made the NL wild-card race particularly compelling.

Meanwhile, the Yankees remain the team capable of changing the American League picture dramatically if Judge returns and performs immediately.

The latest results demonstrate how quickly the standings can move. Cleveland recently completed a four-game sweep of Detroit, while Boston completed a sweep of Baltimore. The Padres also continued their pursuit of an NL wild-card place. RReuters

That is why September predictions should be treated as projections rather than guarantees.

Final Takeaway

The MLB September predictions point toward a postseason field that will look familiar, but the final weeks could still produce several major surprises.

Milwaukee and Los Angeles are favored for National League byes. San Diego has the edge over Arizona for the final NL wild card. Toronto is the popular choice to claim the last American League playoff position.

On the individual side, Schwarber remains the favorite for the home-run crown, while Cease is the leading strikeout prediction. Crow-Armstrong, meanwhile, could finish the season with a historic WAR total after an extraordinary late-season surge.

And then there is Judge.

If the Yankees star returns quickly and produces at his usual level, the AL East could become one of the defining stories of the final weeks.

For now, the playoff picture is relatively stable. But with every game carrying greater weight, September remains baseball’s ultimate pressure test.