SpaceX Stock: 3 Reasons Morgan Stanley Is Bullish

SpaceX stock is back in focus after Morgan Stanley highlighted a potentially much larger opportunity behind SpaceX’s planned $100 billion Starbase Louisiana project.

The shares have experienced a volatile start since SpaceX went public in June. According to TheStreet, SpaceX stock reached $225.64 before falling back toward its $135 IPO price, with shares closing at $137.95 on Aug. 25. Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas now argues that investors may be underestimating what SpaceX is building around its Starship program.

The key issue is not simply another rocket launch site. Morgan Stanley’s analysis suggests the Louisiana complex could provide the infrastructure needed for a much larger business involving Starship launches, satellite connectivity and orbital artificial intelligence.

The bank has maintained an Overweight rating and a $300 price target for SpaceX stock. Based on the Aug. 25 closing price cited by TheStreet, that target represents roughly 117% potential upside.

However, the bullish thesis also comes with significant execution, financing and technology risks.

SpaceX Stock and the $100 Billion Louisiana Bet

SpaceX’s proposed Starbase Louisiana project is one of the most ambitious pieces of infrastructure in the company’s history.

The company plans to develop a massive facility in southern Louisiana covering roughly 125,000 acres. Construction is expected to begin in 2027, with the first launches targeted for 2029. The project is expected to include as many as 10 Starship launch pads, vehicle-processing infrastructure, propellant production and power-generation facilities.

The scale is important for SpaceX stock because launch infrastructure determines how quickly the company can expand its Starship operations.

SpaceX already operates major launch facilities in Texas, Florida and California. Its official materials describe Starbase in Texas as a center for Starship development, manufacturing, testing and launch operations. The company is also developing Starship capabilities at Florida’s Kennedy Space Center.

Louisiana would therefore add another major piece to a growing Starship network.

For investors, that could mean the company is preparing for a launch cadence considerably larger than today’s operations.

1. Morgan Stanley Sees a Much Bigger Starship Opportunity

The first reason Morgan Stanley remains bullish on SpaceX stock is the sheer scale of the Starship expansion.

The bank’s modeling reportedly calls for nearly 5,800 Starship launches per year by 2040, equivalent to approximately 16 launches per day. Morgan Stanley estimates that around eight pads could theoretically support that forecast if each pad handled several launches per day.

Yet the bank identifies approximately 15 planned Starship pads across SpaceX’s facilities.

Those include 10 planned pads in Louisiana, two in Texas and at least three in Florida, according to the research discussed by TheStreet.

That creates an important question.

Why would SpaceX build so much launch capacity if its current long-term forecasts require less?

Morgan Stanley’s answer is that investors may not fully understand what SpaceX ultimately intends to launch.

The company is moving beyond the traditional rocket-launch market. Starship is being developed as a reusable transportation system capable of carrying large payloads to Earth orbit and eventually supporting missions to the Moon and Mars. SpaceX also says it is developing orbital AI-computing capabilities.

That broader vision could dramatically increase the addressable market for Starship.

2. Orbital AI Could Change the SpaceX Stock Story

The second major reason for Morgan Stanley’s bullish view is orbital computing.

Traditional satellite communications have been central to SpaceX’s growth through Starlink. But Morgan Stanley believes satellite broadband alone may not generate enough demand to utilize the enormous launch capacity SpaceX is planning.

Instead, the bank expects orbital computing to become a major driver.

According to TheStreet’s summary of the Morgan Stanley research, orbital computing could account for more than 80% of projected SpaceX launches beginning in 2032.

That is a major shift in the investment narrative.

Instead of thinking about SpaceX simply as a rocket company or satellite-internet provider, investors may increasingly have to consider it as infrastructure for computing in space.

SpaceX itself is already promoting orbital AI as part of its broader strategy. The company’s website describes its goal of developing scalable orbital AI compute infrastructure alongside its existing space and connectivity businesses.

The concept depends on one simple economic argument: launch costs have to fall dramatically.

If computing hardware can be transported into orbit cheaply enough, large-scale orbital data centers could become economically viable.

Morgan Stanley expects Starship to play a central role in that transition.

3. Starship Could Dramatically Reduce Launch Costs

The third bullish factor for SpaceX stock is the potential economics of Starship.

Starship is designed to be fully reusable. SpaceX’s stated goal is to return both the spacecraft and Super Heavy booster for rapid reuse, potentially allowing much faster turnaround than conventional expendable launch systems.

The vehicle is also significantly larger than Falcon 9.

TheStreet reports that Morgan Stanley expects Starship’s launch cost to fall toward approximately $500 per kilogram by 2030, below $200 by 2035 and below $150 by 2040. For comparison, the research estimates Falcon 9’s variable cost at roughly $1,000 per kilogram in 2025.

Lower launch costs could have consequences far beyond the launch business itself.

A cheaper ride to orbit could make it economically attractive to deploy much larger amounts of computing equipment, communications infrastructure and other payloads.

That is why the Louisiana project matters.

Building 10 launch pads would make little sense if each rocket required a lengthy refurbishment cycle. But if SpaceX can eventually achieve rapid reuse, the additional infrastructure could become a strategic advantage.

SpaceX Stock Has Already Been Through a Major Pullback

The bullish Morgan Stanley thesis arrives after a significant decline in SpaceX stock from its post-IPO high.

SpaceX shares began trading on Nasdaq under the ticker SPCX on June 12, 2026, following an IPO priced at $135 per share. The company subsequently raised approximately $85.7 billion in gross IPO proceeds after the underwriters exercised their overallotment option.

The shares then climbed as high as $225.64 before retreating sharply.

TheStreet reported that the stock closed at $137.95 on Aug. 25, putting it close to the original IPO price.

That decline matters because Morgan Stanley’s $300 target now represents a substantial premium to the level at which the shares recently traded.

Still, investors should not interpret the target as a guarantee.

Price targets are estimates based on assumptions about future revenue, margins, capital spending, technology development and valuation multiples. In SpaceX’s case, many of those assumptions stretch well into the future.

What SpaceX Needs to Prove

The bullish case for SpaceX stock depends heavily on execution.

The first major test is Starship reliability.

SpaceX has made significant progress with Starship, but the company is still working toward the level of reliability and repeatability required for a high-frequency commercial launch system.

The next challenge is turnaround time.

A reusable rocket only becomes truly transformative if it can be inspected, refurbished and launched again quickly. Morgan Stanley’s model assumes major improvements in vehicle reuse over time, including substantially higher flight counts for both boosters and ships.

The company also needs to demonstrate that customers will actually pay for orbital computing.

Building launch pads is one challenge. Filling thousands of launches with economically attractive payloads is another.

That distinction is critical for SpaceX stock investors.

A huge launch facility is valuable only if there is enough demand to use it.

The Financing Question Is Just as Important

The other major issue is capital.

A $100 billion infrastructure commitment requires enormous financial resources, even for a company with SpaceX’s scale.

SpaceX raised approximately $85.7 billion through its IPO in June and later announced a $25 billion inaugural bond issuance. The company said proceeds from the bond offering would include repayment of outstanding bridge financing, with remaining funds available for general corporate purposes.

Morgan Stanley’s broader scenario assumes SpaceX could require substantial additional debt financing as its investment program accelerates. TheStreet reports an estimated average annual net debt issuance of about $80 billion in the bank’s model.

That is an enormous funding requirement.

Therefore, the bullish thesis depends not only on SpaceX successfully developing Starship but also on continued access to capital markets.

If launch development costs rise, timelines slip or orbital AI demand develops more slowly than expected, the financial burden could become a significant concern.

Morgan Stanley’s $300 SpaceX Stock Target

Morgan Stanley’s $300 price target is based on a much larger vision for SpaceX than today’s core businesses.

The bank reportedly values SpaceX at nearly 10 times projected fiscal 2028 sales and 25 times projected EBIT. Its model assumes revenue growth of about 70% and EBIT growth of 113%.

Another notable part of the thesis involves the potential value of orbital computing.

Morgan Stanley estimates that each additional gigawatt of nameplate computing capacity could potentially add almost $27 per SpaceX share under its assumptions. The calculation uses a $50-per-watt valuation, a 70% incremental margin and a 10-times EBITDA multiple.

These numbers explain why the bank sees considerable upside.

They also show why the risks are equally substantial.

If SpaceX fails to reach the expected launch cadence or orbital AI demand remains limited, the assumptions behind the $300 target could weaken considerably.

What SpaceX Stock Investors Should Watch Next

For investors following SpaceX stock, three indicators could become particularly important.

First, watch Starship launch frequency.
A higher launch cadence would demonstrate that SpaceX is moving from development toward a repeatable commercial operation.

Second, watch vehicle turnaround times.
Rapid reuse is central to the economics of Starship. More launches mean little if each flight requires lengthy refurbishment.

Third, watch enterprise AI demand.
Orbital computing is one of the most ambitious parts of Morgan Stanley’s thesis. The market will need evidence that customers are willing to pay for computing capacity deployed in orbit.

The Louisiana project itself should also remain a major milestone.

Construction is expected to begin in 2027, with the first launches targeted for 2029. The facility’s development could provide investors with a clearer picture of how aggressively SpaceX intends to scale Starship.

The Bottom Line for SpaceX Stock

The latest Morgan Stanley analysis gives SpaceX stock investors a compelling reason to look beyond the company’s current share price.

The $100 billion Starbase Louisiana project could be much more than a new rocket facility. It may represent the infrastructure foundation for a future in which Starship launches thousands of payloads, supports expanded satellite networks and enables large-scale computing infrastructure in orbit.

Morgan Stanley’s $300 price target reflects that long-term vision and implies substantial upside from the stock’s recent levels.

But the opportunity comes with equally significant risks.

SpaceX must make Starship reliable, reusable and inexpensive enough to support a dramatically higher launch cadence. It must also find enough demand for that capacity, particularly from orbital AI and other emerging applications.

For now, the Louisiana project has strengthened the bullish narrative around SpaceX stock. The bigger question is whether SpaceX can turn its extraordinary infrastructure ambitions into equally extraordinary economics.

External sources: TheStreet source article · SpaceX Investor Relations · SpaceX official website

Internal link note: Because no target website/domain was supplied, I have not invented internal URLs. Add 2–3 relevant links from your own site, ideally to existing articles about SpaceX stock, AI stocks, space stocks, or IPO investing.