Apple Analyst Says iPhone 18 Prices Could Stay Flat Despite Rising Costs

Apple’s highly anticipated iPhone 18 series may arrive later this year without the significant price increases that many industry observers once expected, according to supply chain analyst Ming-Chi Kuo. His forecast — shared on social platform X — suggests that Apple’s pricing strategy will focus on holding costs steady, even as component prices climb and supply chains tighten.

The projection arrives at a time of growing concern across the smartphone industry, as manufacturers grapple with rising prices for memory and other key components. Record-high demand for AI infrastructure has pushed memory allocations toward server markets, driving up prices for DRAM and LPDDR modules that smartphones rely on. Analysts widely expect these cost pressures to influence device pricing in 2026.

Component Costs Climb, But Apple Pushes Back

Traditionally, Apple has maintained a predictable pricing structure for its flagship phones from year to year. However, early reports about inflationary pressure — including memory prices rising 10 to 25 percent year-over-year — raised speculation that the iPhone 18 would break that trend with higher retail tags.

Kuo’s commentary challenges that narrative. According to him, Apple’s strategy for the second half of 2026 rollout is to “avoid raising prices as much as possible”, with plans to keep at least the starting price flat relative to the iPhone 17 lineup. This approach, he argues, could bolster Apple’s marketing position and help preserve demand even amid economic volatility.

Behind the scenes, Apple is reportedly negotiating memory prices with suppliers on a quarterly basis, rather than the traditional six-month cycle. That flexibility allows the company to better absorb cost fluctuations, even as memory prices trend upward.

Why Apple Might Hold the Line

Industry observers note that Apple’s scale and supply chain strength give it an advantage few competitors enjoy. Securing memory and chip capacity — particularly from leading producers like TSMC — has become more challenging as AI-related demand strains global production. Apple’s ability to lock in supply deals means it can absorb higher component costs without immediately passing them on to buyers.

Kuo suggests this strategy could, in the short term, squeeze Apple’s gross margins, but the company may offset those losses through its growing services business, where profitability remains high. This dual focus on hardware affordability and services revenue has been central to Apple’s broader financial model in recent years.

What This Means for Consumers

For customers eagerly awaiting the iPhone 18 — expected to be unveiled in the second half of 2026 — the prospect of a stable price point is welcome news. Especially in markets where inflation has nudged up smartphone prices across the board, Apple’s stance could help maintain buyer interest and competitive momentum.

That said, analysts caution that conditions may still evolve between now and the product’s release. The technology sector remains fluid, and broader economic shifts or unexpected supply challenges could prompt Apple to adjust plans. For now, though, the message from Kuo’s research is clear: Apple appears poised to fight price inflation rather than surrender to it.